The Multifaceted Effects of User Profiling in the Entertainment Industry

The CEO of Hulu, Jason Kilar recently made a post on the his company’s blog, giving a startlingly direct overview of their marketing strategy and his predictions for the future of TV and online video distribution in general. A key portion of his argument focused around innovation and increased efficiency in marketing. Like many, he banks on the assumption that in the near future, advertisers will be able to collect viewer information in order to more accurately target a desired audience.

Indeed marketers have been trying to collect this information for decades, however establishing such a system requires drastically overhauling the way users currently interact with websites and distribute their private data. For an exchange like this to work, it seems necessary to have demographic and use information be tracked and distributed by the web browser itself. There’s growing evidence that Google Chrome might soon be doing just that- in fact they already use a similar model through their popular email client Gmail where ads are chosen based upon keyword analysis of a users’ recent messages (a practice which continues to encounter heavy criticism due to privacy concerns). In the future, distributors like Hulu and Amazon might pay browser companies a premium for access to a users’ profile. As an incentive for giving up their private information, users could receive free access to premium content, better suggestions of products or shows, and of course fewer actual advertisements: “send us your profile to watch this program with only one commercial interruption (if you stay anonymous there will be five).”

Whatever becomes the dominant system for collecting and organizing data, there’s no arguing that the online medium is already providing valuable new feedback that companies can use to more effectively develop and market their products. At the same time, this surplus of information and predictability can be detrimental to creative innovation. A recent article in GQ “The Day the Movies Died” caused quite a commotion because it finally provides a depressingly informative explanation of what many had noticed but few really understood: “why is Hollywood putting out so many remakes lately?”

Throughout the article, Mark Harris explains that lately Hollywood studios have largely come to rely on a single formula: pick a successful existing product and turn it into a film. Which explains why this season we will see “...four adaptations of comic books. One prequel to an adaptation of a comic book. One sequel to a sequel to a movie based on a toy...” etc. Studio executives have found that the safest strategy is to market something that’s already familiar to the audience. Apparently it has gotten to the point that even an original smash hit like “Inception” gets written off as a statistical anomaly, a mistake, a glitch in the formula. The problem with this line of reasoning is that, while safe and profitable, it cannot account for innovation and thus leads to creative stagnation. Consistency might not sound like such a tragedy if the products are tires and hamburgers, but if when it comes to things like movies, music, and games- arguably our most popular modern art forms- this halt of progress is a very troubling matter. As user profiling, prediction algorithms, and neuromarketing become more accessible and widespread, it seems that companies will face the difficult responsibility of striking a balance between safe formulas and unpredictable new ideas. We can only hope that great original content has a place in this model.

Know Thyself

Let's take a look at what we talked about before, that is machine learning and software eventually sort of understanding us better than we understand ourselves. Since there are obvious monetary/political advantages to pulling this off, advertising companies and government projects are a good place to start:

1. Cognitive Match Secures Another $2.5m For Realtime Matching
The Cognitive Match startup is applying artificial intelligence, learning mathematics, psychology and semantic technologies to match content (product, offers, or editorial) to realtime content. It’s doing this in part by relying on an academic panel of professors in artificial intelligence from Universities across the UK and Europe who specialize in machine learning and psychology. The idea is to ensure maximum response from individuals, thereby increasing conversion, revenue and ultimately profit.

2. How Your Biometrics Can Make Super Bowl Ads Better

The premise of Levine’s company, Innerscope, is that running this data through algorithms can tell advertisers which commercials work and which don’t. They can quantify your subconscious responses to advertisements without resorting to the messiness of human language.

3. Navy Wants Troops Wearing Brain-Scanners Into War
The Navy’s Bureau of Medicine and Surgery is requesting proposals for a brain-scanning system that can assess a myriad of neuro-cognitive abilities, including reaction times, problem solving and memory recall. The scanner would also test for preliminary warning signs of post-traumatic stress, anxiety and depression, using the Trail-Making Test: a series of connect-the-dot exercises that’s been used by the military since the 1940s. And not only should the system be portable, but the Navy wants it to outlast the most extreme weather conditions, from desert heat to Arctic cold.

4. HIDE – Homeland Security, Biometric Identification & Personal Detection Ethics

HIDE is a project promoted by the European Commission (EC) and coordinated by the Centre for Science, Society and Citizenship, an independent research centre based in Rome (IT).

HIDE aims to establish a platform devoted to monitoring the ethical and privacy implications of biometrics and personal detection technologies. Detection technologies are technologies used to detect something or someone within a security or safety context. Personal Detection Technologies focus specifically on individuals, they include for example CCTV, infrared detectors and thermal imaging, GPS and other Geographical Information Systems (GISs), RFID, MEMS, smart ID cards, transponders, body scanners, etc. Biometrics is the application of technologies that make use of a measurable, physical characteristic or personal behavioural trait in recognizing the identity, or verifying the claimed identity of a previously registered individual.

ADABTS (Automatic Detection of Abnormal Behaviour and Threats in crowded Spaces) aims to facilitate the protection of EU citizens, property and infrastructure against threats of terrorism, crime, and riots, by the automatic detection of abnormal human behaviour. Current automatic detection systems have limited functionality, struggling to make inferences about the acceptability of human behaviour.

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We could keep going, but that's enough for now. This last one is pretty interesting- and don't worry, I'm not about to start talking Orwell/Minority Report. Biometrics when hooked into a bunch of wires, sitting in a chair is one thing. Biometrics being read by simply analyzing visual/sonic information is another. This British system is supposedly working on algorithms to detect evil intentions through facial cues allegedly in order to stop potential terrorists/criminals before they're able to do anything. So let's talk about the fun, non military, non crime fighting, personal version of this type of thing. If we're eventually all wearing cameras and microphones, then we have the same tools at our disposal as the British government, just on a small scale. The advantage we also have, is being able to manually tag incoming information to help the computer: that was Mark who I was talking to for the last hour. Next time you talk to Mark, it recognizes his voice and adds important information to your growing collection of his statistics. Three months later, after the computer has a pretty good idea of what he sounds like when you talk to him, all of a sudden it lets you know that he's either sick, tired, or depressed, judging by his abnormal facial expressions, less emotional voice, and sparser comments. It also lets you in on the fact that Leah, who you just met at a party is probably attracted to you judging by her tracked eye movement, increasingly engaged responses, and infrared temperature patterns. As the judicial spins all out of wack, so will interpersonal relationships, art, and love.

For People Who Hate Shopping

Every clothing store should have a complete list of their inventory available online. This should be hooked into an unaffiliated fashion profiling service which keeps track of what you wear, in what size, and how often (frequency = enjoyment), like netflix. As this starts to build it would become quite useful. Say you walk into a store that you've never been to before. Instead of haphazardly searching through racks of clothes, making sure to try everything on in three sizes to find the right one, you could simply consult your profile via your cellphone. You tell it the name of the store that you're at and what you're looking for, and it gives you a list of suggestions that it thinks you'll enjoy based on what you've rated in the past and what "shoppers like you" have said about various pieces of clothing. On a more practical level it also keeps track of what colors you prefer and your exact measurements to determine proper size without trying everything on (negating the overhead caused by changing rooms and all the reshelving they necessitate, which would be a way to get stores to agree to put their inventories online). It would also tell you things about yourself that you wouldn't have figured out otherwise: "Based on your hatred of these ten pairs of pants, it seems you don't like anything boot-cut. We'll keep this in mind for future suggestions." Or say you always wear a particular item. Since the system keeps track of frequency of use, it could search for similars, or accessories that would complement the style. You could also see which stores would have the most/cheapest selection of clothes you would probably like, which would make for much more efficient shopping- it could even predict seasonal sales like bing.com does with airfare, telling you when to buy what. So shoppers would save time, stores would save overhead, and designers would have free* access to the largest survey pool possible- the general public.

S O C I A L freaking E F F I C I E N C Y

Also, if we connect this to the attraction meter, you could get something like, "Statistically speaking, if you'd like to attract men ages 20-23 in this area, we recommend this outfit." or even better: "Based on what women you've rated attractive in the past, their demographic and aesthetic choices, an outfit like thi$ would give you the best chances."

How would people react to that?